Weather by Tim Kelley
Friday May 9th, 2014 - 12:17 pm
That's a wrap, thanks for having me this winter. It's definitely one for the record books. Not a record amount of snow, about 26 feet is fairly average for Jay Peak Resort.. but the way it started and is ending. Just for the fun of it, I am reposting our first weather discussion from November 17th. Some years when we start off so strong in fall, we can fall flat during the winter, but not this year. Sure January was too rainy (and too cold at the same time!?), but by Valentine's week we were rocking. I lost track of how many feet of snow fell in February and March, maybe half of our 26? But the weather stayed cold longer, and the snow pack held. How many times have we skied natural snow in the glades this time of year? Show of hands? I do not see any hands. Of course this chill may have put a little damper on the tailgate parties, but it's a fine trade in my opinion.
For this last weekend of the season we are getting a treat. After a few showers early Saturday, the west wind will dry us out with a good amount of sunshine and mild air. High will approach 70 at the base Saturday afternoon. Mother's Day Sunday looks like the nicest day of the spring. Moderate wind from the west may keep a slight chill, 40s up top, but we should be near 60 at the base... With Sunshine!
What a Grand Finale' for a most memorable ski season.
It's been an honor to play a roll on The Jay Peak Resort Team this year, and I hope to be back in the fall.
Happy Biking, Golfing, Fishing, Surfing Summer.
Catch you next season, Tim
For the fun of it, here is a look back at my first post, 7 months ago!
Did THEY forecast this much snow at Jay last week? Um.. no, 'They' they did not forecast this much snow!
Thank you Tim Fater for sharing your bliss with us.
Tim says Jay Peak received all of 30"+ in a Saturday to Tuesday storm, and he wants to know-
how this happens, especially when we have no snow 20 miles away?
Here is my answer.
It's 'The Jay Cloud' Tim!
"Cold moist air from The Atlantic Ocean, and Hudson Bay Canada, rushing south across plains of Ontario and Quebec. The first mountain it encounters is Jay Peak in Northern Vermont.
Wind from the north lifts up over the Northern Green Mountains, causing dynamic cooling and condensation of the H2O resulting in said 'Jay Cloud'. As long as the wind, and the chill, and the moisture content, is sufficient, it keeps on snowing in the northern Green Mountains, especially at Jay.. also parts of Northern New Hampshire and Maine.
All signs are we have a strong season, already in progress."
After a brief Monday November 18 thaw, we have a minor Jay Cloud with a few inches likely Tuesday, before a couple of quiet days (cold enough for snow making) Wednesday and Thursday. The next cold front arrives Friday or Saturday. Indications are that we have only a minimal Jay Cloud coming Friday night. But some extreme cold may swing in for the weekend.
Next week, now we are talking Thanksgiving week, we will likely have a blizzard crossing the USA from Utah to Quebec. It's too early to call for all snow with that storm but the stakes are high, and an extreme event is possible.
Last week's surprise 30" is a good sign. Some winter's we over estimate many snowfall forecasts, some winter's we under estimate.. so far this year, we are under estimating. That kind of forecasting error is a sign we may have one of those 'Old Fashioned' Winter's.
Honored to be on the Jay Team.
Next update Thursday morning.
Who is Tim Kelley?
A native Cape Codder, Tim says "Dad taught me how to read Barometer, Mom taught me how to smile."
He learned to ski at Blue Hill near Boston 4 decades ago. But it was Burke Mountain Vermont where is was exposed to big mountain skiing while earning his B.S. in Meteorology at Lyndon State College, class of '87.
Tim has started his weather career at WMUR Manchester NH, then went to WLNE in Providence RI, before settling at his current TV gig, New England Cable News (NECN) in 1992. You can also see his surf and ski reports on SkiTheEast.net, Boardliving.com, and SurfSkiWeather.us.
He says "It's an honor to be part of The Jay Team, look for me in TIMbuktu!"